As the many primaries occur, Huckabee, according to a recent Rasmussen poll, is 3rd place nationally among his fellow Republican contenders. However, Huckabee only maintains a 1% lead over McCain (23% vs. 22%). With only this slight lead, Huckabee has been working very hard, in order to win the Republican primaries. This week, Huckabee participated in the Michigan primary. Although Huckabee had no campaign office and only volunteers in Michigan, he campaigned fiercely with a new strategy. Huckabee visited many conservative areas of Michigan that contain big evangelical communities. Here, with a similar and successful strategy that he used in Iowa (and received a great victory), Huckabee campaigned to informal religious networks. However, he maintained a conflicting strategy, in which he abandoned his emphasis on conservative social issues and instead focused on economic issues (very important to Michigan voters). As the Michigan primary approached, These conflicting strategies may have led to Huckabee’s loss in Michigan (a state with much less evangelical Christians). Huckabee came in 3rd place among the Republican candidates.
Even before the networks released the results of the Michigan primary, Huckabee was campaigning in South Carolina claiming: “we’re going to win South Carolina”. Perhaps Huckabee new that he would not win Michigan; thus, he decided to focus his efforts on South Carolina, a Southern state where he could a greater number of votes (due to the presence of more conservative evangelical Christians). On Friday night, just before the South Carolina primary, it was predicted that Huckabee and McCain would come in a close first place in South Carolina. In fact, the McClatchy-MSNB poll showed Huckabee with 25% of Republicans, just 2% points behind McCain. On the day of the South Carolina primary, this poll proved true; McCain maintained his small advantage. Huckabee came in 2nd place with 30% of the Republican voters, only 3% below McCain.
In other news, Huckabee signed a “No Amnesty” Pledge while he was in South Carolina, which details that if he became President he would “oppose amnesty or any other special path to citizenship for the millions of foreign nationals unlawfully present in the United States.” This may help Huckabee receive more votes from non-evangelical Christian Conservatives. In addition, Huckabee shared his desire to amend the Constitution to include G-d’s name. Huckabee affirmed, “and that's what we need to do -- to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view." This statement may further alienate non-evangelical Christian conservatives. However, it may help him gain the support of more evangelical Christians (whose support is necessary for Huckabee to win the Republican nomination, especially in Southern states).
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I think the Florida primary will be a deciding factor for Huckabee, as his success in Iowa has not been matched with any other primary. Furthermore, Huckabee appears to be running out of money, and if he does not fair well in the Floride primary, he may drop out. Though he most likely won't win in Florida, there is a large evangelical population in the northern part of the state whose support he needs to make a good showing. If doesn't recieve a warm reception, I think he may drop out of the race.
I agree with Scott. If Huckabee does not manage to maintain the support that he gained in Iowa, then there is a very large chance that he will drop out. If this happens, the republican frontrunners will be even less clear than before. Also, if Huckabee drops out, should the Democrats rejoice or be dissappointed? If Huckabee drops out, he could be one less candidate Democrats have to worry about. However, because Huckabee is so radical in his views regarding the church and the state (and evolution), the Democrats may want him to be the republican nominee so that people will shy away from republicans and give the democrats a bigger chance of winning the presidency.
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