Huckabee Preparing for Super Duper Tuesday

After dropping out of the race for the Republican Nomination, Duncan Hunter endorsed Mike Huckabee as “a man of outstanding character and integrity… [and his] personal choice.”
While it helps to have ex-competition praising his campaigning skills and moral values, Duncan Hunter’s support will have little effect on the overall campaign because an average of national polls conducted in January showed his followers only made up 1-2% of republicans. Placing second in South Carolina, may have hurt Huckabee more than expected because he now lacks momentum to coast in Florida, a state he has never expected to do well in. His lack of campaigning in Florida is probably due to the combination of Giuliani’s extended stint there as well as the general demographics—however, Florida is a key state for the general election and a Republican with only 13% support there may be less attractive in the eyes of the Republican convention. Regarding the Republican Primary in South Carolina, it seems that Fred Thompson pulled just enough votes away from Huckabee to hinder a win. Ironically, Huckabee’s popularity with the evangelical Christians significantly hindered Thompson’s projected base, and here Thompson launched one last attack on Huckabee before dropping out of the race. Today Huckabee appeared on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace and began the segment responding to a Romney’s most recent accusations that McCain once a backed a timetable to get out of Iraq. Interestingly, Huckabee defended McCain saying, “I’ve never known [him] to be dishonest.” His backing of John McCain serves as a way to differentiate himself from Romney, the other religiously controversial candidate, looks good for his moral integrity to defend one of his competitors and another step towards making it a race between him and McCain. To that end, later on in the interview, Huckabee asserted, “I don't have to slam John McCain. I think that presidential politics can be civil. I think people can have mutual respect for each other.” He also later addressed a proposition of a ticket between he and McCain saying, “[we] have entered into this race both looking for the same job. I'm not looking to be on his ticket. I don't think he's looking to be on mine.” In addition, angered families have publicized stories of Huckabee’s personal profit in a school shooting that took place in March of 1998. Apparently, Huckabee was offered $25,000 to write a book on youth violence using the event as a primary example and “demand[s] [that] the money go to the school, the victims' families or for scholarships for the wounded, not to the writer's bank account…he said no.” Numerous discrepancies over Huckabee’s ethics while governor of Arkansas continue to surface leaving constituents left pondering the validity of such claims and the repercussions of poor values for a candidate running on authenticity and a Christian world view.

A Disappointing Week and Weekend for Huckabee

As the many primaries occur, Huckabee, according to a recent Rasmussen poll, is 3rd place nationally among his fellow Republican contenders. However, Huckabee only maintains a 1% lead over McCain (23% vs. 22%). With only this slight lead, Huckabee has been working very hard, in order to win the Republican primaries. This week, Huckabee participated in the Michigan primary. Although Huckabee had no campaign office and only volunteers in Michigan, he campaigned fiercely with a new strategy. Huckabee visited many conservative areas of Michigan that contain big evangelical communities. Here, with a similar and successful strategy that he used in Iowa (and received a great victory), Huckabee campaigned to informal religious networks. However, he maintained a conflicting strategy, in which he abandoned his emphasis on conservative social issues and instead focused on economic issues (very important to Michigan voters). As the Michigan primary approached, These conflicting strategies may have led to Huckabee’s loss in Michigan (a state with much less evangelical Christians). Huckabee came in 3rd place among the Republican candidates.


Even before the networks released the results of the Michigan primary, Huckabee was campaigning in South Carolina claiming: “we’re going to win South Carolina”. Perhaps Huckabee new that he would not win Michigan; thus, he decided to focus his efforts on South Carolina, a Southern state where he could a greater number of votes (due to the presence of more conservative evangelical Christians). On Friday night, just before the South Carolina primary, it was predicted that Huckabee and McCain would come in a close first place in South Carolina. In fact, the McClatchy-MSNB poll showed Huckabee with 25% of Republicans, just 2% points behind McCain. On the day of the South Carolina primary, this poll proved true; McCain maintained his small advantage. Huckabee came in 2nd place with 30% of the Republican voters, only 3% below McCain.


In other news, Huckabee signed a “No Amnesty” Pledge while he was in South Carolina, which details that if he became President he would “oppose amnesty or any other special path to citizenship for the millions of foreign nationals unlawfully present in the United States.” This may help Huckabee receive more votes from non-evangelical Christian Conservatives. In addition, Huckabee shared his desire to amend the Constitution to include G-d’s name. Huckabee affirmed, “and that's what we need to do -- to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards so it lines up with some contemporary view." This statement may further alienate non-evangelical Christian conservatives. However, it may help him gain the support of more evangelical Christians (whose support is necessary for Huckabee to win the Republican nomination, especially in Southern states).

Huckabee Third in New Hampshire

In the Republican debate leading up to the first primary in the nation, Huckabee got into a debate with his major Iowa competitor, Romney, with each making accusations of the other increasing taxes in his state during his governorships. In the New Hampshire Primary Election, Huckabee placed third in New Hampshire with 11% percent of the vote. Although Huckabee’s campaign did not expect a large showing in New Hampshire, it leads one to wonder whether Huckabee can be a viable national candidate with support from pure conservatives as well as the plains-based religious right. As such, it is not surprising that Huckabee poured more efforts into the upcoming South Carolina primary that boasts “conservative Christians” as a larger portion of the constituency. In addition, Huckabee and McCain are both awaiting the Michigan primary because if Romney cannot win the state, which his father was governor and he spent part of his childhood, he may abandon his run for president. If that is the case, Huckabee will have a much better chance at the Republican Nomination because the religious right will not be split between the candidates. However, this does not account for Giuliani’s campaign strategy, which will probably make him a major competitor in the coming months. It seems Huckabee is still struggling with the religious aspect of his campaign; while sometimes it provides a lot of support, he also receives a lot of criticism from more traditionally conservative Republicans. The debate and is shown by his comment, "Many of us who have been Republicans out of conviction . . . the social conservatives," he told reporters, "were welcomed in the party as long as we sort of kept our place, but Lord help us if we ever stood forward and said we would actually like to lead the party." This weekend Huckabee campaigned in Michigan and tried to convey a message that he “understands what struggling to make a living really means… I understand the workers in this state. I can see the fear in their eyes. They know that any day could be the day when they are told their jobs are headed to Mexico or the Middle East, and when that happens they'll wonder how they're going to put food on the table.”Since McCain and Huckabee have each won a primary/caucus, it will be interesting to see who comes out victorious in Michigan and how it influences the Republican race for the Presidential Nomination.

A Strong Start, but a Long Road Ahead

On the night of the Iowa Caucuses, Huckabee received 34% of the Republican vote, making him the winning of the Republican Caucus. This win affirmed previous pools that predicted Huckabee to be the frontrunner of the Republican party in Iowa. Huckabee defeated his fellow Republican candidates due to his strong Christian beliefs and values. In addition, Huckabee received great support from evangelical Christians who attended the caucus. In fact, according to entrance polls, 60% of the attendees were evangelical Christians and Huckabee received 46% of their votes. In addition, 45% of individuals who attended the caucus identified themselves as “very conservative,” and 35% of them supported Huckabee. Huckabee also received great support from women, as well as Republican voters under 45. Ecstatic at winning Iowa, Huckabee greatly thanked his supporters asserting, "I wasn't sure I would ever be able to love a state as much as I love my home state of Arkansas, but tonight, I love Iowa."

After winning in Iowa, Huckabee flew to New Hampshire Friday to focus on the January 8th New Hampshire primary. It is predicted that Huckabee will have a difficult time receiving Republican votes in New Hampshire. In fact, Romney is favored in New Hampshire and some recent polls have named McCain (won NH in 2000) the New Hampshire frontrunner. In addition, New Hampshire is comprised of less evangelical Christians and has a great(er) amount of Republicans identifying themselves as libertarians (most are pro-choice). Commenting on the absence of a great number of evangelical Christians, Huckabee joked "We're going to have to go convert a lot of people in New Hampshire in the next five days,” "A big tent revival out on the grounds of the Concord State Capitol. We'll get 'em all converted to the evangelical faith and then we'll win.” However, Huckabee acknowledged his win in Iowa was due to many voters who were not evangelicals. Although Huckabee will be in New Hampshire for the following 4 days with Chuck Norris right by his side, Huckabee’s campaign is focusing greatly on the January 19th South Carolina primary. The majority of Huckabee’s staff plans to set up in South Carolina soon, where he has a much greater chance to win the primary. In addition, Huckabee has made recent appearances on “Good Morning America,” “The Early Show,” “Today Show,” “Fox and Friends,” and the “International Report” (to name a few). The extra press Huckabee has gained after his win in Iowa while probably increase his support among voters.